On the Determinants of Terrorism Risk Concern in Europe

We investigate whether differences in terrorism risk are mirrored on terrorism risk perception across European countries for the period 2003–2007. We find that the average propensity for terrorism risk concern is affected by actual risk levels. Country and individual heterogeneity contribute substantially to the variation of observed risk perception. Singles and individuals with white collar jobs are less likely to mention terrorism as one of the most pressing issues their country faces, while political positioning towards the right makes it more likely to be concerned about terrorism. As far as competing risks are concerned, we find that the likelihood terrorism is mentioned, decreases with spending on pensions as a percentage of GDP being higher. Finally, based on the Bayesian framework, we also examined the formation of terrorism risk perceptions, and decompose the observed country-level time series of terrorism activity into a long- and a short-run component. We concluded that the observed risk perception variation is only explained by the long-term trend of terrorism activity countries face.     

NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH

The funding of international nuclear risk mitigation is ad hoc, voluntary, and unpredictable, offering no transparent explanation of who is financially responsible for the task or why. Among many non-nuclear-armed states, this exacerbates a sense of injustice surrounding what they see as a discriminatory nuclear regime. The resulting erosion of the regime's legitimacy undermines support for efforts to prevent nuclear weapons dissemination and terrorism. This article proposes a transparent, equitable “nuclear-user-pays” system as a logical means of reversing this trend. This system envisions states contributing financially to international efforts to mitigate nuclear risks at a level relative to the degree of nuclear risks created by each state. “National nuclear risk factors” would be calculated by tabulating the risks associated with each state's civilian and military nuclear activities, as well as advanced dual-use and nuclear-capable missile activities, multiplying the severity of each risk by the probability of it occurring, and combining these results. A nuclear-user-pays model would create financial incentives for national and corporate nuclear risk mitigation, boost legitimacy and support for nuclear control efforts among non-nuclear-armed states, assist in preventing nuclear weapons dissemination and terrorism, and advance nuclear disarmament by helping progressively devalue nuclear weapons.     

高层建筑安全疏散设计探析

近年来我国高层建筑剧增,承载的人口越来越密集,火灾荷载越来越大,如果安全疏散设计不合理,一旦发生火灾,容易造成严重后果.在分析高层建筑的火灾特点和影响人员安全疏散的因素的基础上,从合理设置安全出口、疏散走道、疏散楼梯、疏散宽度和距离、疏散门、避难层及其他辅助疏散设施、疏散照明灯具等方面探析了高层建筑的安全疏散设计,为避免和减少人员伤亡和财产损失创造条件.     

模糊综合评判的装备研制风险评估

装备研制风险评估是在风险分析的基础上对所研究阶段的风险性进行评估,计算该阶段的风险得分,最终确定其风险等级,对结果进行比较分析,为下一步工作的开展确定方向,具有重要的指导意义.对装备研制的风险管理进行了研究.针对装备研制项目阶段特点,从风险管理工作的现实需求出发,以风险管理的基本理论为基础,结合其他领域已有的风险管理模型,建立了装备研制风险管理的针对性模型,并结合事例对装备研制风险管理模型的具体应用进行了说明.     

高新装备复合式预防性保修风险模型

结合高新装备保修需求,引入复合式预防性保修策略,以"定期更换周期内辅以功能检测"这种典型复合维修工作为例,从安全性影响的角度分析了装备的故障发生情况,并建立了其故障风险数学模型。在此基础上,通过算例给出了所建模型的应用方法,研究了该策略下决策变量对故障风险的影响,并分析了模型的通用性。     

火灾区域模拟原理及CFAST软件应用

分析火灾区域模型的理论基础 ,介绍CFAST软件的功能及操作 ,并应用该软件对某建筑物二楼舞厅的火灾安全性进行评估     

中庭内步梯在火灾疏散中的应用探讨

对中庭内步梯在火灾情况下人员紧急疏散的使用进行了探讨,提出了使用水幕减弱火灾辐射危害的措施,并运用火灾危险分析方法进行了论述。     

基于HACCP的部队食品安全体系研究

依据HACCP原理,分析了武警部队实行HACCP管理的可行性以及需要解决的问题,进而提出武警部队HACCP管理的方案和要求,构建武警部队基于HACCP的食品安全保障体系。     

建筑消防工程隐患成因及整改对策探析

分析了建筑消防工程在设计、施工、产品质量、消防验收等方面火灾隐患形成的原因,同时为适应当前消防工作的需要,针对消防工程中存在的火灾隐患提出了建筑消防工程的全过程质量控制及整改对策。     

武汉长江隧道疏散方式选择与观测分析

阐述了隧道疏散的各种方式,说明了武汉长江隧道采用下沉式滑道的纵向疏散方式的原因,对武汉长江隧道疏散系统进行了详细演习测试,并对当前拥挤状态下的通车条件进行了分析,认为只要保持交通通畅,加强管理,隧道下沉式纵向疏散系统可以满足通行客车时的人员疏散安全。